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Just how long will the Ukraine War last? I’ve written a few times that Russia is collapsing and the end for the Russian empire as a whole is near. The date? It’s possible for Russia to lose the war in 2024, but definitely within 2025. It’s just clear they don’t have the men, material, or morale to continue behind 2025.
But looking from a historical perspective, we can examine other large conflicts and how long they lasted.
World War 1: 4 years (28 July 1914–11 November 1918)
World War 2: 4 years (1 September 1939–2 September 1945)
Korean War: 3 years (25 June 1950–27 July 1953)
Most of these large wars ended within 4 years. Of course there’s exceptions like Vietnam that lasted for 19 years. But generally, for a large scale war, most countries can only sustain a few years of fighting.
In World War 1, there were about 1.4 million combat deaths for Russia. In World War 2, the Soviet Union lost about 8.7 million soldiers. Now, Russia is building up major losses again, with 600,000+ casualties. Despite the amount being a lot less than World War 1 or World War 2, the situation is on par with the same severity.
The reason that losing 600,000+ soldiers is as bad as losing millions in the past, is that modern soldiers have a lot more…